CACTUS: Saturday night take-out is Oakeshott and Windsor are finished

windsoroakeshottFederal Labor-supporting Independent MPs Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor have been sent a pretty emphatic message in the NSW state election: they’re dead meat.

NSW Labor was vanquished as widely expected despite a formidably resilient showing by outgoing Premier Kristina Keneally. Bearded Victorian lefty Alex White says it’s the worst ever effort, the pre ALP Labor Electoral League managed to win 34 seats in 1891. The only joy for Labor on this funereal night for them was that they appear to have fended off pushes from dodgy vitamin marketer Jamie Parker in Balmain and fanatical Israel-hater Fiona Byrne in Marrickville. Both seats are still considered too close to call though.

The Liberals polled incredibly but the Nats also did extremely well, reclaiming territory lost to highly politically effective, cunning Independents.

In the state seats of Port Macquarie, once held by Rob Oakeshott, and Tamworth, once held by Tony Windsor, the Nats brutally knocked off the Independents, linking them to their federal counterparts, the Greens, the Prime Minister and, of course, the dreaded carbon tax.

There was a 30% swing against Oakeshott’s mate Peter Besseling in Port Macquarie.

There was a 12% swing against Windsor’s mate Peter Draper

The country members are now staring into the political abyss. The seats don’t have exactly the same boundaries although there is considerable overlap. Swings like that would be enough to obliterate Oakeshott and almost certainly Windsor too, assuming he runs again (and it’s widely expected he won’t). The Nats can smell blood now and are going to devote themselves to wiping the two out, whatever happens.

And the contrast with their somewhat estranged mate Bob Katter couldn’t be more stark.

He’s come up like roses, stood up for principle (some of them admittedly a bit eccentric from a city-slicker’s point of view), maintained his rage against Green taxes on mining and carbon but for the most part has been a sensible and pragmatic MP in the chamber, voting with the government often enough and maintaining very cordial relations with the Prime Minister and her colleagues, keeping a good rapport with the Opposition Leader too.

He’s likely to stay the member for Kennedy for as long as he likes. His cheeky plan to hand the seat over to one of his sons will probably work such is the high local community regard for both father and son (a local councillor).

The two wanted to be players and went their separate ways from the bloke who was probably their natural leader. The rush of blood to their head, demonstrated by 17 minute orations by Oakeshott and their foolish participation in a boastful 4Corners programme (that Katter was wise enough to shun in the end) has meant that they are all but finished politically.

While it’s far too early to write off the Prime Minister, the two blokes who ensured she got there have learned this Saturday night that the party is well and truly over.

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27 Comments

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27 responses to “CACTUS: Saturday night take-out is Oakeshott and Windsor are finished

  1. Harry Lime

    The one piece of joy about the result is that it looks like Fiona “Judenhass” Byrne has failed to get elected.

    What say you Wendy? Those nasty Joos did FiFi in? The Cabal of Rootless Cosmopolitans conspired against her?

  2. Zaf

    He’s come up like roses, stood up for principle (some of them admittedly a bit eccentric from a city-slicker’s point of view)

    No, he’s batshit. Sorry. But interesting times in NSW. And two greens at worst ALMOST got in. What do you think of that?

  3. ALP facing further defeat second half of the year

    We can expect a new federal election to be held someone in the second half of this year. The Liberal national Party having tasted blood will find a way to force a fresh election rather then allow the Greens to dominate the senate. the next election will be a full senate election and we may even see a repeat of events that happened in 1975.

    Victoria will see the ALP lose its support with inner city electorates such as Melbourne Ports up for grabs.

  4. ALP in decline

    “Yesterday morning Mr Rees arrived at a local public school to find that there were none of his posters outside the main gate for voters. They appeared to have been put up at the wrong gate.

    With a fence on either side of the correct entrance covered in posters for Liberal rival Kirsty Lloyd, who had staff at the school overnight, he was forced to stand three A-frame posters on the pavement.

    Elsewhere, Labor volunteers appeared to be absent without leave at a number of other booths, presumably thinking it was too late to slow the exodus of the party faithful.”

    This is very much reminiscent of the 2010 Victorian State Election and the centralised campiagn under Nick Reece

  5. “Swings like that would be enough to obliterate Oakeshott and almost certainly Windsor too, assuming he runs again (and it’s widely expected he won’t).”

    Firstly the huge swing in Port Mac is misleading as it is comparing a result obtained by Oakeshott with a result obtained by Besseling, and most likely the Oakeshott cult didn’t completely rub off on his successor. Compared with Besseling’s by-election result it is only 11%, similar to the 12% in Tamworth. In this case the by-election seems like the better guide (for once).

    A swing of this size might or might not claim Oakeshott (currently sitting on 12.7%) and wouldn’t unseat Windsor if he stood (21%).

  6. LeftRightOut

    What would increase those swing numbers, Hyperdog, is the fact that it’d be their names (Oakshott/Windsor) on the ballot. I would expect swings in the order of 30%+ against these two. The only variable being, which of the two, would have the biggest swing against them.

  7. Byron in Wahroonga

    ***Firstly the huge swing in Port Mac is misleading as it is comparing a result obtained by Oakeshott with a result obtained by Besseling***

    LOL. Our booth workers in Lake Cathie told me voter dislike of Besseling was downright scary. For Oakeshott, add fifty percent.

  8. A Nonny Mouse

    Menzies House has come to Vex News, huh, Christian Lion, er, Lyons?

  9. Coastie

    In the Seat of Gosford yesterday Union workers walked off the boothes in Umina and Woy Woy at 4.00PM leaving them un manned for 2 hours.

  10. Pingback: Labor bloodbath; Windsor Oakeshott done for « politichix

  11. EH Lee

    More from the disgraceful The Age:

    Today’s online edition (who would spend money on the print edition?) is so embarrassed at the Comrades’ performance in NSW that NSW politics doesn’t feature until article No 5, and then only some bumf about supposed discord between BOF and Tony Abbott: “O’Farrell puts Abbott slur behind him” is the headline.

    The Age is a joke.

  12. blackmambo

    who saw BOF diss Kerry O’Brien? Priceless

  13. Wendy

    Funny, I thought it was a State election? Didn’t the ALP get the biggest ever swing in the 2010 federal election in Victoria … and then didn’t the Vic ALP lose office?

    Sorry folks, you can’t spin this one on your rabid hatred meter. This was a state election about a tired old crappy government. Nuthin’ to do with carbon or independents or Bob or Satan or Ponting’s poor captancy …

  14. Barry McFarrell him win big, but Zoran knows if he not deliver like Pizza Hut him not so shiny in four years.

    Peoples him wanting things done, not the talking fukcing.

  15. Adrian Jackson

    More on the failing Fairfax media. Not only does Caroline Webb misquote me (Vineyard Cafe, St Kilda story some months ago) but Suzanne Carbone’s column is boring being full of so called celeb crap (bring back Lawrence Money’s Age Dairy).

    But now the infection has hit the local trash mags like Melbourne Weekly-Port Phillip. Again a trash mag slag has misrepresented me in this week edition. Only give a mans job to a woman if she can do it.

    The leftie Age journalists will be crying into their beer after the NSW humiliation for their woman Premier. She was a likable person sourounded by dregs.

    The ALP has a habit in recent years of handing women the poison chalice when all is lost, for example Christina Keneally, Carmen Lawrence and Joan Kirner to name three

  16. cynic

    Obvious to see th elabor hacks on here trying to spin away the nsw result. Kinda shows labor is addicted to spin over substance. NSW was a lesson to be leraned but it seems labor has not.

  17. Real

    It would be difficult to misrepresent you Adrian – a known fool, ass cannon and fake is hard to get wrong.

    How many votes did you get?

  18. LeftRightOut

    Wendy, I think you’re a denier!

  19. Bill Calvin

    Very pleasing to see the greens fail badly in NSW.
    What a massive own goal putting up as a candidate the sheila from Hamas in Marrickville.

  20. the Insider

    Who is happier – Ian Cohen or Verity Firth? who knows- they both achieved their aim of keeping Jamie Parker out of the parliament

  21. Giuseppe De Simone

    After the very courageous Oakeshott and Windsor acted unilaterally in accordance with their own professed criteria and turned against the wishes of their electorates by supporting the Greens-ALP Gillard grouping for government, it was only a matter of time before their self-delusional exculpatory justifications would be blasted with a full dose of electoral reality. Now they should do the honourable thing and admit they no longer enjoy the confidence of their constituents and resign allowing the people who entrusted them to protect their interests to replace them with someone more honest. An independent member of parliament loses all legitimacy when he or she turns against the wishes of their electorate. Politics is truly local for the independent MP – no one expects them to be part of the government or the opposition, merely to reflect with integrity and decency the views of their electorate and represent the values and beliefs the voters espouse. The locals were not impressed or swayed by the pork barrelled riches promised to their constituents as the electoral equivalent of the brown paper bag in return for their support. Indeed, it seems the electorate is less interested in hand-outs and more interested in good conservative value-based government than their representatives gave them credit for. Resign traitors to your electorates, it will be the most decent and representative thing you have ever achieved. Do it now.

  22. Giuseppe De Simone

    My most recent posting should have ended with the disclaimer that the views expressed therein are personal and do not reflect the opinions of any organisation of which I am a member or with which I am affiliated. I am sure that if they were to abandon Gillard and support Abbott, there would be those who would forgive their transgressions at least until the next general election.

  23. How gullible are people, how much of strong beliefs they have, as many people think that O’Farrell is the second coming and Abbott is the next messier!

    Have you asked yourselves, what if they don’t deliver? What if the electricity, gas, water, rates go up next 6 months or next year? What if what they promised does not come to pass?

    How gullible are the sheep listing to the ranting of the Liberals especially in QLD as they announced they were winning the election in QLD but were stopped in their tracks because the majority did not want a early election.

    How gullible are the sheep to believe in Abbott that he is the leader of the country and to dictate to the IND how to vote!

    People have voted for the Liberals out of anger rather than policies, so when they fail, what will that anger transform into?

  24. Welcome to the West Indies and have a nice day (Wendy)

    Wendy, the Greens scurried away like cockroaches at a rubbish tip – when the media highlighted that their expensive campaigns ended in losing. Losing, losers, tossers, last in the race, forgotten, failures, fruitbats, fools. My Thesaurus loves the Greens.

  25. Brett

    @ALP in decline: wow, posters put up at wrong gate, hardly an oddity considering most of the work is done in the 12 hours prior to the booths oppening, glade you coudl read the tea leaves out of what was expected to be a smashing.

  26. Adrian Jackson

    Ms Real is having a monthly period moment it would appear.

  27. Jamie Parker has taken Balmain.
    congratulations to him.
    I hear he is intelligent and personable.
    And most importantly he is no rabid mantra chanting antisemite as was her candidate comrade across Parramatta rd in Marrickville.

    The circumstances and issues were different in the two electorates.
    Parker did not have to contend with a tenacious anti Boycott campaign staged on the ground as well as in the media.
    Whatever wash he still received he can thank his rather inferior green candidate in Marrickville, who unlike him, chose confrontation , division and lies.
    And look where she is and her BDS lies right now.
    Shattered both.

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