HE TIPPED THIS: Sunday Herald Sun scribe James Campbell saw the Vic election result coming

jamescampbell It is widely believed that no-one saw the Victorian Liberal triumph coming, least of all anyone in the state political commentariat.

But that’s not quite correct, on November 7th James Campbell at the nation’s most popular newspaper the Sunday Herald Sun wrote:

HALFWAY through Friday night’s debate, it dawned on me that Labor has no strategy to win this election.

Despite what you might have read, there is a good chance that Ted Baillieu will be premier in a little over three weeks.

And from Friday night’s display, John Brumby is doing everything he can to help make it happen.

The Coalition’s strategy is simple – make the election a referendum on 11 years of Labor.

Labor’s strategy should be to make it a referendum on whether Baillieu and his buddies are fit and proper people to be trusted with government.

Instead it is engaged in a bizarre and fruitless attempt to make the Premier likeable. Dressing him in an open-neck shirt and filming him in a soft light – like Val Doonican introducing a song on a Christmas special – doesn’t stop Brumby sounding like a geography teacher.

If he were cruising to victory, then staring statesmanlike into the distance and talking about the future might be a good plan.

But he isn’t cruising to victory – he’s fighting for his political life.

For the past year, when he hasn’t been reminding Victorians about what to dislike about Labor, Baillieu has been announcing a lot of locally targeted policies that you won’t have read about or seen on the TV news.

And what most commentators seem to have missed is that the strategy is working. According to Newspoll, in the past year while apparently “doing nothing”, Baillieu has closed the gap to within two percentage points of Labor. According to last month’s Galaxy Poll, the gap is now only 1 per cent.

When you remember that much of Labor’s 51 per cent is wasted in seats with massive majorities, it becomes clear the Coalition could lose the two-party preferred vote and still win the election.

In June those sort of poll numbers cost Kevin Rudd his job…

The people spreading stories of political disunity in the Liberal Party have seen how close the polls are and know they face political oblivion. It’s strange the media and some parts of the ALP don’t seem to have noticed.

The former Liberal staffer made the case for why the Liberals task was not as hard as was imagined by some in the commentariat and reported on many Libs thoughts they couldn’t win while insisting that they could.

There is no doubt at all that Campbell picked the result when few others thought such subversive thoughts about the government. Some believe he even had a few quid on the outcome too. Colleagues in his newsroom, some so colourful they devise previously unused descriptive terms like “man candy”, fear he might be a little unbearable this week. The Richmond fan needs to take his wins when he can.

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22 Comments

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22 responses to “HE TIPPED THIS: Sunday Herald Sun scribe James Campbell saw the Vic election result coming

  1. Liberal insider

    The Liberal party has been behind Ted much more than some ever thought. Especially with David Kemp and Tony Nutt.

    The polling booths were better manned than ever, including the Federal election, and $$$ were easier to raise. This all required many, some who might have had some doubts about Ted, to work hard to defeat the ALP and their running dog commie mates.

  2. Steve Sensible

    He WILL be unbearable this week. But good on him. If only he had written the Sunday Herald Sun editorial on November 21…

  3. Jay

    The Labor machine continues to blame 11 years in Govt for their defeat.They fail to accept their mismanagement, incompetence and arrogance was the reason for their failure.The so called party of the workers happily sat on their hands whilst the Greens and their lunatic policies hijacked the Labor Party which resulted in ridiculous prices for electricity, gas and water, but more importantly it affected the very people they were suppose to look after.Good riddance.

  4. Sotherby

    putting the Greens last, though it took forever made a world of difference- though sadly i fear now for the state about to get a clueless cashed up tosser of a premier, im sure he’ll be gone by 2014.

  5. Anon

    Sotherby – don’t worry, the clueless cashed up tosser, John Brumby, is NOT going to remain Premier.

    But yes, the tosser Brumby will be gone a long time before 2014. There will be a by-election in Broadmeadows in the first half of next year.

  6. flipper

    Flamboyant copy like “man candy” should not be allowed in a family newspaper – whatever the author’s personal preferences.

  7. Anonymous

    Wouldn’t say NO-ONE saw this coming. 3 weeks ago I put $100 on the Libs at 4.20. Nice odds in a 2 horse race. Payout time.

  8. GO TED

    This defiant attitude of Brumby just proves that Labors time of cynically playing the electorate is now up! Throwing money at the voters was not enough Labor had gotten so very lazy and the voters were so very tired of the ALP being all for choice so long as it was always their regressive choices and no one elses! Now wasting money on myki and the desalination plant is NOT moving foward feeling unsafe in the streets and on trains is not moving forward hefty traffic fines is not moving fowward gay marriage, adoption, euthanasia, a six hundred percent jump jump in the late term abortion rate is not moving foward
    so now Victoria has a fresh start! Hooray for that glad to see Brumby and all his left leaning out of touch pushy dominating forces go out the door! The fresh forces of renewal have arrived in Victoria! so all the best TED!

  9. The march of the patriots

    This is a glorious day for Jeffistas and Tedistas everywhere. News that Petro will be Chief of Staff only makes it even more glorious. Now where’s my Vic Badge?

  10. TED's TIME

    Go TED GO so very glad that you have fun with the Brighton Icebergers and lets hope Brumby can reflect on his loss as he feels the ice as he Brumby refelcts as he faces days in opposition. Brumby and his cohorts just couldnt see what the voting public saw a government that has so lost touch with its voting base! ALP in the end presented to many as a draconian, punitive government that appeared to care about nothing but its own agenda of its own choices and not what the public wanted!The Public choice is important too! See the public didnt want hefty traffic fines, rising utility bills, unsafe streets and trains, wasted money on big ticket projects eg myki and the desalination plant and an overall lack of service excellence that had crept in under Brumbys lacklustre ALP! Brumby listened to the lefties in his party too much and he is now paying the price for it! So Brumby so lacked judgement in the end! So now go quietly Brumby maybe your time is up Its TED’s Time now and hooray for that! Victoria now has a fresh leader with a fresh approach and that is so uplifting to many !

  11. evil bastard

    The march of the patriots – i have a cache of victoria badges & can let you have one at a very reasonable price

  12. Good riddance

    Journos love suds which can sometimes lead to prescience and pre-cognitive powers.

    Voters knew some time ago that the Brumby government were lazy tossers. The electricity smart meters, country ‘waterways charge’, the Desal plant that has enraged Gippslanders, and a hundred other examples of costly but silly solutions enraged taxpayers especially when coupled with pontifications by former Premier Brumby.

  13. The impossible takes a little longer

    Former Premier Brumby did the impossible. He lost an unloseable election which was in the bag a week ago.

    I’m hoping I might now receive a sensible response from the Arts Ministry after endless letters to ex-ministers Kosky and Batchelor. Former shadow-minister Ted Bailleau might be able to pursuade the moribund ministry to provide a reply that is not completely absurd.

  14. Anonymous

    How many Labor Party hacks and apparachiks are out of a job now?

    They will have to find real jobs?

    How will they cope ?????

  15. Ben

    James Campbell – a prophet? Thus saith VexNews and ye shall take him to the horse races. What’s his position on “global warming” though?

  16. andy bult

    Can we now get rid of those hideous painted concrete panels along the Calder and Tulla fwy. This was Bracks’ finger at Jeff and should be removed.

  17. DH Doyle

    My Dear Viscount McPerton of Golden Gate QC

    One of the messenger boys that I have employed here at Town Hall informed me that a message had come from San Francisco addressed to me, HRH The Rt Hon Lord Fatty Doyle, and so I summonsed the letter immediately, and was delighted to see that it was a hand written note from my good fat friend Victor Perton. Indeed the last time I saw or heard from you was when I saw “Victor Perton in Mexico City February 2010″ on you tube, and re-acquainted myself with what a big lard-filled idiot you really are.

    I fully and completely endorse your bid to be the Governor, a Supreme Court Justice, and Secretary of the Department of Justice. In fact, I believe you should be given all three at the same time, but im told by George Brandis that this might be contrary to the spirit of the constitution. Perhaps you could be the new Human Rights Ambassador? I ran this idea past your former colleagues at the human rights bar, who first of all claimed never to have heard of you, and then suggested you might be best-suited to a role as tribunal member in VCAT, but only once it has been abolished.

    Whatever happened to the Victor Person human rights law blog? Perhaps you could answer that question in your own time.

    I do want to raise an issue with you that has been giving me about as much trouble as an animal metaphor inserted into a Dr Dean op-ed piece in The Age. Why is it that Ted is now Premier, and yet when I ran for election, I got the worst result in history? Why was I humiliated? Why am I only a local councillor? And why was I elected to the post reserved for laughing stocks and running in-jokes by the people of Melbourne? John So denies this, and quite frankly, I believe him.

    The only answer I believe is a luncheon, my dear McPerton. Perhaps we can invite The Goose Atkinson, who can entertain us with his lovely poetry whilst we wait for our meal. I know Nintendo Man is your favourite, but I particularly like Table Top Dancer. In fact, I think they are all great. WHy were his works never published? Perhaps that could be a project for the new arts minister?

  18. bye bye Labor hacks

    How many over-paid ALP staffers are going to lose the tax-payer funded vehicle?

    They will have to go out and buy one, gee the shock of it all.

  19. Grim Reaper

    Rest assured, those tax-payer funded vehicles are now being polished up ready for the “over paid” LIB staffers who can’t wait to get the keys. Anyone that believes the LIBS wont have their snouts back in the same tax-payer trough after 11 years in the wilderness is clearly deluded. Jobs for the boys is well practiced by both sides of politics. A plethora of regurgitated media advisers and hacks are already lining up for interviews and fighting over the best offices on the first floor of Treasury Place.

    As reported in today’s Hun, Stockdale, Knowles, Baxter, Birrell and other former Kennett cronies are crawling out of the woodwork ready to help poor old Baillieu find his way into his new office. Hell knows which rock that lot have been hiding under for the past decade. Resorting to advice from those failed relics just highlights the lack of talent and intellect on Baillieu’s front bench. Will Stockdale be eager to carry on his unfinished agenda by advising Kim (invisible) Wells to start selling off schools and hospitals again?

    Today’s Age reports that Baillieu may dump or defer some big ticket promises, pending the outcome of a financial audit. All sounds so “Kennett” familiar. Or is that the sound of Howard’s core and non-core promises we can hear in the back ground?

    The electorate gets the government they deserve. Well Victoria, now you got it – right in the eye. The same Kennett cronies that brought us the slash & burn, bully-boy state of the 90’s are back in business. We reap what we sow.

  20. Jennnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn

    Not one of us will ever turn our backs on Ted ever he can’t do bad enough for that, and to TEDS TIME, belive you me that Ted will never hurt you never there is nothing he can do to hurt you ever. And every single one of us agree with me on that one we will DEARLY LOVE TED BAILLIEU FOREVER AND EVER JUST LIKE YOU TEDS TIME. And you would agree with me on this one TEDS TIME you would never lower yourself to vote Labor ever you would not be worth a crumpet if you did only better people vote Liberal.

  21. Jennnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn

    At Least I know Good Riddance is a STRONG STRONG LIFE LONG LIBERAL VOTER how could you want to vote for anyone else you would have to have rocks in your head, and like i say people have no rights picking on the Liberal party and i know this one for a fact thank God you will never have to say GOOD RIDDANCE to Ted Baillieu because just like me Ted will never do anything to hurt you. And you will agree with me on this one, one you vote Liberal you will never anyone else ever again. And i look forward to you saying good riddance to Gillard too. And i want to see more and more anti Labor letters from you please, But no anti Liberal letters thanks. Nobody has a right to pick on the Libs as you know.

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